Daily Forex Analysis - October 17, 2008

AUDUSD Analysis.

After breaking above 0.7133 resistance, AUDUSD pulled back from 0.7237 and reached 0.6495 level. One more rise above 0.7237 previous high to reach next short term cycle top is still in favor. Initial support is now located at 0.6495, only fall below this level will signal resumption of down trend, and then deeper decline could be seen to 0.6000 zone.


GBPUSD Analysis.
GBPUSD formed a short term cycle top at 1.7630 level. Further fall could be seen to test 1.6786 previous low support, a break below this level will signal deeper decline towards 1.6000 zone. Initial resistance is located at 1.7630, only rise above this level will take price back to 1.7950-1.8000 area.


USDJPY Analysis.
USDJPY is forming a sideways consolidation in a range between 97.91 and 103.06. Further fall to test 95.77 (Mar 17 low) support could be seen after consolidation, and a break below 97.91 level will confirm such case. However, the next cycle top on daily chart is nearing, one more rise above 103.06 to reach the cycle top is still possible next week.


EURUSD Analysis.
EURUSD is forming a sideways consolidation in a range between 1.3258 and 1.3785. As long as 1.3785 resistance holds, we’d expect down trend to resume, and further fall could be seen to 1.3000 after consolidation. Only break above 1.3785 level could signal lengthier correction to down trend.


USDCHF Analysis.
USDCHF breaks above 1.1486 previous high resistance and pulls back from 1.1488 level. One more rise above 1.1488 is still possible after consolidation. Initial support is at 1.1245 and key support is now at 1.1128 level, a break below 1.1128 will indicate that the uptrend from 1.0693 (Sep 22 low) has completed, and then pullback towards 1.0800 zone could be seen to follow.


USDCAD Analysis.
USDCAD is forming a sideways consolidation in a range between 1.1304 and 1.2123. Pullback towards 1.1450 zone could be seen in a couple of days. Initial resistance is at 1.1995 and key resistance is located at 1.2123 level.


Daily Forex Analysis - October 16, 2008

GBPUSD Analysis.
GBPUSD pulls back from 1.7630 and formed a short term cycle top on 4-hour chart. Further fall could be seen to test 1.6786 previous low support, a break of this level will signal resumption of down trend, and deeper decline is expected to 1.6000 zone. Initial resistance is located at 1.7630 only rise above this level will signal further rally towards 1.7950-1.8000 area.


USDJPY Analysis.
USDJPY pulls back from 103.06 and formed a short term cycle top on 4-hour chart. Consolidation in range between 97.91 and 103.06 is expected in a couple of days. Initial resistance is located at 103.06, only rise above this level will indicate lengthier correction to down trend is underway and delay the resumption of down trend.


EURUSD Analysis.
Being contained by 1.3785 resistance, EURUSD pulls back from 1.3768 level. Sideways consolidation in a range between 1.3258 and 1.3785 could be seen in a couple of days. Initial resistance is at 1.3785, only break above this level could signal lengthier correction to down trend.


USDCHF Analysis.
USDCHF traded in a range between 1.1128 and 1.1486 on 4-hour chart for several days. Further rally is still in favor after consolidation and a break of 1.1486 will signal resumption of up trend. Initial support is at 1.1245 and key support is now at 1.1128 level.


AUDUSD Analysis.
AUDUSD breaks above 0.7133 resistance and reaches 0.7237 only. One more rise above 0.7237 level is still possible in a couple of days. Key support is at 0.6330, a break of this level will signal resumption of down trend, and deeper decline could be seen to 0.6000 zone.


USDCAD Analysis.
USDCAD formed a short term cycle bottom at 1.1304 level and rebounds sharply to as high as 1.1931 level. Further rally to test 1.2123 is still possible later today, however, this level would more likely be held, and pullback could be seen to retest the trend line support.


For long term forex analysis.

Currency Trading Training - 7 Favorite Tips

Currency trading training is not over when a trader finally sees the equity increasing in their account.

The Forex market is a very demanding environment and for a trader to maintain a success level, constant currency trading training is necessary.

The following 7 favorite tips can be used as timely reminders and need to be read and absorbed on a regular basis:

#1 - Take Responsibility

"The buck stops here." Don't blame the markets, or a host of other factors for a losing trade. You entered it for whatever reasons you had at the time. Take responsibility for it.

#2 - Use Each Losing Trade As A Stepping Stone

You lost a trade? Good. It will help you focus on a potential problem in your trading method. If after careful analysis you are satisfied you worked according to your plan, fine. Move on.

#3 - Never Become Impatient With The Market

New traders in the early stages of their currency trading training can be eaten alive by the market. During periods of consolidation with little liquidity the anxious impatient trader will force trading opportunities where there none.

Learn to accept the fact that around 70% of the time price will be in a consolidation channel.

#4 - Focus Daily On Improving Your Trading Skills

Currency trading training is an ongoing process. Day by day, step by step the trader improves. So rather than be preoccupied with profits and losses, concentrate on developing the skills. Your account will start to reflect your focus in time.

#5 - Be Pleased With Well Executed Trades Whatever The Outcome

Is this possible? Yes. You can feel well pleased even with a losing trade if you stuck to your methodology and executed the trade well. It is dangerous to feel good about a winning trade when you went against your trading method to achieve it. Your elation is likely to be short lived. Learn to execute the plan!

#6 - If In Doubt Stay Out

The feeling of regret can drain a person mentally and emotionally from entering a poorly considered trade. Once the trigger has been pulled and the trade starts going wrong, the agony of watching it inch towards your stop should renew in the trader the determination to stay out when in doubt!

#7 - Always Have A Good Reason

Currency trading training involves careful analysis of reasons for entering a trade. Just because price is high is not a reason to go short or long if price is low. Price will do what price wants to do so rather than trading from gut reaction, e.g. "Price can't go any higher (or lower)" learn to detach emotions and use pure technical analysis to establish a number of reasons why you should take a trade.

As currency trading training is a long term commitment, skills and disciplines learned can sometimes be forgotten as bad habits creep in.

It is necessary to constantly renew the thinking processes by repeating over and over the habits of successful traders.

These 7 favorite tips will keep the newer trader out of a lot of trouble!

Forex Market Snapshot


The following facts and figures relate to the foreign exchange market. Much of the information is drawn from the 2007 Triennial Central Bank Survey of Foreign Exchange and Derivatives Market Activity conducted by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) in April 2007. 54 central banks and monetary authorities participated in the survey, collecting information from approximately 1280 market participants.

Excerpt from the BIS:

"The 2007 survey shows an unprecedented rise in activity in traditional foreign exchange markets compared to 2004. Average daily turnover rose to $3.2 trillion in April 2007, an increase of 71% at current exchange rates and 65% at constant exchange rates...Against the background of low levels of financial market volatility and risk aversion, market participants point to a significant expansion in the activity of investor groups including hedge funds, which was partly facilitated by substantial growth in the use of prime brokerage, and retail investors...A marked increase in the levels of technical trading – most notably algorithmic trading – is also likely to have boosted turnover in the spot market...Transactions between reporting dealers and non-reporting financial institutions, such as hedge funds, mutual funds, pension funds and insurance companies, more than doubled between April 2004 and April 2007 and contributed more than half of the increase in aggregate turnover." - BIS


  • Decentralised 'interbank' market
  • Main participants: Central Banks, commercial and investment banks, hedge funds, corporations & private speculators
  • The free-floating currency system began in the early 1970's and was officially ratified in 1978
  • Online trading began in the mid to late 1990's

Source: BIS Triennial Survey 2007

Trading Hours

  • 24 hour market
  • Sunday 5pm EST through Friday 4pm EST.
  • Trading begins in New Zealand, followed by Australia, Asia, the Middle East, Europe, and America


  • One of the largest financial markets in the world
  • $3.2 trillion average daily turnover, equivalent to:
    • More than 10 times the average daily turnover of global equity markets1
    • More than 35 times the average daily turnover of the NYSE2
    • Nearly $500 a day for every man, woman, and child on earth3
    • An annual turnover more than 10 times world GDP4

  • The spot market accounts for just under one-third of daily turnover

1. About $280 billion - World Federation of Exchanges aggregate 2006
2. About $87 billion - World Federation of Exchanges 2006
3. Based on world population of 6.6 billion - US Census Bureau
4. About $48 trillion - World Bank 2006.

Source: BIS Triennial Survey 2007

Major Markets

  • The US & UK markets account for just over 50% of turnover
  • Major markets: London, New York, Tokyo
  • Trading activity is heaviest when major markets overlap5
  • Nearly two-thirds of NY activity occurs in the morning hours while European markets are open6

5. The Foreign Exchange Market in the United States - NY Federal Reserve
6. The Foreign Exchange Market in the United States - NY Federal Reserve

Average Daily Turnover by Geographic Location

Source: BIS Triennial Survey 2007

Concentration in the Banking Industry

  • 12 banks account for 75% of turnover in the U.K.
  • 10 banks account for 75% of turnover in the U.S.
  • 3 banks account for 75% of turnover in Switzerland
  • 9 banks account for 75% of turnover in Japan

Source: BIS Triennial Survey 2007

Technical Analysis

Commonly used technical indicators:

  • Moving averages
  • RSI
  • Fibonacci retracements
  • Stochastics
  • MACD
  • Momentum
  • Bollinger bands
  • Pivot point
  • Elliott Wave


  • The US dollar is involved in over 80% of all foreign exchange transactions, equivalent to over US$2.7 trillion per day

Currency Codes

  • USD = US Dollar
  • EUR = Euro
  • JPY = Japanese Yen
  • GBP = British Pound
  • CHF = Swiss Franc
  • CAD = Canadian Dollar
  • AUD = Australian Dollar
  • NZD = New Zealand Dollar

Average Daily Turnover by Currency

N.B. Because two currencies are involved in each transaction, the sum of the percentage shares of individual currencies totals 200% instead of 100%.

Source: BIS Triennial Survey 2007

Currency Pairs

  • Dollar bloc: USD/CAD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD
  • Major crosses: EUR/JPY, EUR/GBP, EUR/CHF

Average Daily Turnover by Currency Pair

Source: BIS Triennial Survey 2007

Forex Money Management

Put two rookie traders in front of the screen, provide them with your best high-probability set-up, and for good measure, have each one take the opposite side of the trade. More than likely, both will wind up losing money. However, if you take two pros and have them trade in the opposite direction of each other, quite frequently both traders will wind up making money - despite the seeming contradiction of the premise. What's the difference? What is the most important factor separating the seasoned traders from the amateurs? The answer is money management.

Like dieting and working out, money management is something that most traders pay lip service to, but few practice in real life. The reason is simple: just like eating healthy and staying fit, money management can seem like a burdensome, unpleasant activity. It forces traders to constantly monitor their positions and to take necessary losses, and few people like to do that. However, as Figure 1 proves, loss-taking is crucial to long-term trading success.

Amount of Equity Lost Amount of Return Necessary to Restore to Original Equity Value
25% 33%
50% 100%
75% 400%
90% 1000%

Figure 1 - This table shows just how difficult it is to recover from a debilitating loss.

Note that a trader would have to earn 100% on his or her capital - a feat accomplished by less than 1% of traders worldwide - just to break even on an account with a 50% loss. At 75% drawdown, the trader must quadruple his or her account just to bring it back to its original equity - truly a Herculean task!

The Big One

Although most traders are familiar with the figures above, they are inevitably ignored. Trading books are littered with stories of traders losing one, two, even five years' worth of profits in a single trade gone terribly wrong. Typically, the runaway loss is a result of sloppy money management, with no hard stops and lots of average downs into the longs and average ups into the shorts. Above all, the runaway loss is due simply to a loss of discipline.

Most traders begin their trading career, whether consciously or subconsciously, visualizing "The Big One" - the one trade that will make them millions and allow them to retire young and live carefree for the rest of their lives. In FX, this fantasy is further reinforced by the folklore of the markets. Who can forget the time that George Soros "broke the Bank of England" by shorting the pound and walked away with a cool $1-billion profit in a single day? But the cold hard truth for most retail traders is that, instead of experiencing the "Big Win", most traders fall victim to just one "Big Loss" that can knock them out of the game forever.

Learning Tough Lessons

Traders can avoid this fate by controlling their risks through stop losses. In Jack Schwager's famous book "Market Wizards" (1989), day trader and trend follower Larry Hite offers this practical advice: "Never risk more than 1% of total equity on any trade. By only risking 1%, I am indifferent to any individual trade." This is a very good approach. A trader can be wrong 20 times in a row and still have 80% of his or her equity left.

The reality is that very few traders have the discipline to practice this method consistently. Not unlike a child who learns not to touch a hot stove only after being burned once or twice, most traders can only absorb the lessons of risk discipline through the harsh experience of monetary loss. This is the most important reason why traders should use only their speculative capital when first entering the forex market. When novices ask how much money they should begin trading with, one seasoned trader says: "Choose a number that will not materially impact your life if you were to lose it completely. Now subdivide that number by five because your first few attempts at trading will most likely end up in blow out." This too is very sage advice, and it is well worth following for anyone considering trading FX.

Money Management Styles

Generally speaking, there are two ways to practice successful money management. A trader can take many frequent small stops and try to harvest profits from the few large winning trades, or a trader can choose to go for many small squirrel-like gains and take infrequent but large stops in the hope the many small profits will outweigh the few large losses. The first method generates many minor instances of psychological pain, but it produces a few major moments of ecstasy. On the other hand, the second strategy offers many minor instances of joy, but at the expense of experiencing a few very nasty psychological hits. With this wide-stop approach, it is not unusual to lose a week or even a month's worth of profits in one or two trades. (For further reading, see Introduction To Types Of Trading: Swing Trades.)

To a large extent, the method you choose depends on your personality; it is part of the process of discovery for each trader. One of the great benefits of the FX market is that it can accommodate both styles equally, without any additional cost to the retail trader. Since FX is a spread-based market, the cost of each transaction is the same, regardless of the size of any given trader's position.

For example, in EUR/USD, most traders would encounter a 3 pip spread equal to the cost of 3/100th of 1% of the underlying position. This cost will be uniform, in percentage terms, whether the trader wants to deal in 100-unit lots or one million-unit lots of the currency. For example, if the trader wanted to use 10,000-unit lots, the spread would amount to $3, but for the same trade using only 100-unit lots, the spread would be a mere $0.03. Contrast that with the stock market where, for example, a commission on 100 shares or 1,000 shares of a $20 stock may be fixed at $40, making the effective cost of transaction 2% in the case of 100 shares, but only 0.2% in the case of 1,000 shares. This type of variability makes it very hard for smaller traders in the equity market to scale into positions, as commissions heavily skew costs against them. However, FX traders have the benefit of uniform pricing and can practice any style of money management they choose without concern about variable transaction costs.

Four Types of Stops

Once you are ready to trade with a serious approach to money management and the proper amount of capital is allocated to your account, there are four types of stops you may consider.

1. Equity Stop

This is the simplest of all stops. The trader risks only a predetermined amount of his or her account on a single trade. A common metric is to risk 2% of the account on any given trade. On a hypothetical $10,000 trading account, a trader could risk $200, or about 200 points, on one mini lot (10,000 units) of EUR/USD, or only 20 points on a standard 100,000-unit lot. Aggressive traders may consider using 5% equity stops, but note that this amount is generally considered to be the upper limit of prudent money management because 10 consecutive wrong trades would draw down the account by 50%.

One strong criticism of the equity stop is that it places an arbitrary exit point on a trader's position. The trade is liquidated not as a result of a logical response to the price action of the marketplace, but rather to satisfy the trader's internal risk controls.

2. Chart Stop

Technical analysis can generate thousands of possible stops, driven by the price action of the charts or by various technical indicator signals. Technically oriented traders like to combine these exit points with standard equity stop rules to formulate charts stops. A classic example of a chart stop is the swing high/low point. In Figure 2 a trader with our hypothetical $10,000 account using the chart stop could sell one mini lot risking 150 points, or about 1.5% of the account.

Figure 2

3. Volatility Stop

A more sophisticated version of the chart stop uses volatility instead of price action to set risk parameters. The idea is that in a high volatility environment, when prices traverse wide ranges, the trader needs to adapt to the present conditions and allow the position more room for risk to avoid being stopped out by intra-market noise. The opposite holds true for a low volatility environment, in which risk parameters would need to be compressed.

One easy way to measure volatility is through the use of Bollinger bands, which employ standard deviation to measure variance in price. Figures 3 and 4 show a high volatility and a low volatility stop with Bollinger bands. In Figure 3 the volatility stop also allows the trader to use a scale-in approach to achieve a better "blended" price and a faster breakeven point. Note that the total risk exposure of the position should not exceed 2% of the account; therefore, it is critical that the trader use smaller lots to properly size his or her cumulative risk in the trade.

Figure 3

Figure 4

4. Margin Stop

This is perhaps the most unorthodox of all money management strategies, but it can be an effective method in FX, if used judiciously. Unlike exchange-based markets, FX markets operate 24 hours a day. Therefore, FX dealers can liquidate their customer positions almost as soon as they trigger a margin call. For this reason, FX customers are rarely in danger of generating a negative balance in their account, since computers automatically close out all positions.

This money management strategy requires the trader to subdivide his or her capital into 10 equal parts. In our original $10,000 example, the trader would open the account with an FX dealer but only wire $1,000 instead of $10,000, leaving the other $9,000 in his or her bank account. Most FX dealers offer 100:1 leverage, so a $1,000 deposit would allow the trader to control one standard 100,000-unit lot. However, even a 1 point move against the trader would trigger a margin call (since $1,000 is the minimum that the dealer requires). So, depending on the trader's risk tolerance, he or she may choose to trade a 50,000-unit lot position, which allows him or her room for almost 100 points (on a 50,000 lot the dealer requires $500 margin, so $1,000 – 100-point loss* 50,000 lot = $500). Regardless of how much leverage the trader assumed, this controlled parsing of his or her speculative capital would prevent the trader from blowing up his or her account in just one trade and would allow him or her to take many swings at a potentially profitable set-up without the worry or care of setting manual stops. For those traders who like to practice the "have a bunch, bet a bunch" style, this approach may be quite interesting.


As you can see, money management in FX is as flexible and as varied as the market itself. The only universal rule is that all traders in this market must practice some form of it in order to succeed.

By Boris Schlossberg, Senior Currency Strategist, FXCM